The highly anticipated general elections in Guatemala took place on Sunday, June 25, and the results surprised many. To analyze the results, we held a Webinar: "Understanding the Results of the 2023 General Elections in Guatemala" together with María Fernanda Bozmoski from the Atlantic Council, Marielos Fuentes from Guatemala Visible, Gustavo Berganza from Asociación Desarrollo, Organización, Servicios y Estudios Socioculturales (DOSES), and Jose Echeverría from the Movimiento Cívico Nacional.
Leading up to election day, there was a great citizen effort to guarantee free elections. For over a year, various civil society organizations monitored, scrutinized, proposed, and highlighted the successes and failures of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the highest authority in electoral matters. This ranged from the acquisition of equipment and software for data transmission in 2022 to the convocation, candidate registration phase, and campaign in 2023.
On June 25, thousands of citizen volunteers guarded the votes of the 5.5 million Guatemalans who went to the polls. The system of Electoral Boards demonstrated that citizens are capable of ensuring a transparent and free process; therefore, the work of all the volunteers who were part of the polling station boards is also admirable.
While there were some incidents, they were not systematic and did not jeopardize the entire election. Election day proceeded normally.
Election Results
(According to TSE data)
Citizen Participation
Out of an electoral roll of 9,361,068 people, 5,547,150 or 60% participated in the elections. This is quite similar to the citizen participation in the last elections (2019), which reached 61%.
Democracy in Guatemala is a recurring theme, as is the question of whether it still exists or not. The panelists agreed that in the strict sense of the word, Guatemala is indeed a democracy, as it has the corresponding institutions and procedures. However, they also agree that it is a weak democracy that has been eroding over time, requiring a concerted effort to solidify it.
The null vote won
This year, the null vote garnered 964,647 votes or 17.39%, surpassing any of the candidates. Compared to other elections, this is high, as between 1999 and 2019, the average null vote was 4.6%.
The null vote and blank votes total 1,352,579 votes or 24.4% of the validly cast votes. This highlights a high level of rejection of the political system and the electoral offerings.
Marielos Fuentes, from Guatemalavisible, commented that the null vote demonstrates clear discontent on the part of the population. On the other hand, she noted that abstentionism is worrying, as it indicates a lack of representation and acceptance that voters feel towards "their candidates." She believes that Guatemalans are tired of politics and that they think of or associate being a politician or engaging in any aspect of this area as something unpleasant.
Survey data from LAPOP or Latinobarómetro show citizen discontent, but it is also important to consider that in these elections there was a strong campaign in favor of the null vote, and even candidates who were no longer running called for voting that way. For example, Carlos Pineda, Thelma Cabrera, and Roberto Arzú.
Presidential Results
Sandra Torres was the candidate with the most votes, receiving 881,592 or 15.9%. However, this was her worst performance in the first round. In 2015, she obtained 17.8% with 967,242 votes, and in 2019, 25.53% with 1,122,909 votes. For its part, the UNE party won in 17 of 23 electoral districts.
Yo seré la Primera Presidenta de Guatemala y he estado trabajando todos los días muy duro para lograrlo. Yo sí les cumpliré. 💚👍 pic.twitter.com/M7hs8mPnA8
— Sandra Torres (@SandraTorresGUA) June 26, 2023
Bernardo Arévalo was the surprise, with 654,534 votes or 11.8%, sweeping the metropolitan area (48% of the votes obtained came solely from the central district and Guatemala). Semilla won in 5 out of 23 electoral districts.
¡Gracias Guatemala!
— Bernardo Arévalo de León 🌱 (@BArevalodeLeon) June 26, 2023
Ha ganado la ilusión y la confianza en un futuro diferente.
¡Estamos en segunda vuelta! pic.twitter.com/0ctj48S1gf
Gustavo Berganza, from Asociación DOSES, indicated that, just as there are candidates who accept defeat, there are others who show resistance, as they cannot believe what happened at the polls, since the Semilla party did not appear in the polls just days before the elections.
Results by electoral districts:
Congress
This is how the 2024-2028 Congress will be composed:
The ruling party, Vamos, will enter with the largest number of deputies. They are followed by UNE and Semilla. However, none of them achieve a full majority. For this reason, the Cabal, VIVA, and Valor parties will be the decisive blocs for forming negotiations or alliances.
Compared to the current legislature, UNE suffered a decline as it has 51 deputies and next year only 28 will enter. The big winners were Vamos and Semilla. Vamos increased from 17 deputies to 39 and Semilla from 7 to 23 deputies.
During the Webinar: "Understanding the Results of the 2023 General Elections in Guatemala", the panelists emphasized that the elected candidate will definitely face a great challenge: Congress. This is a consequence of the marked division that will exist for the new legislature. Issues such as budget and fund allocation were the most discussed, given the varied blocs from different parties against a strong VAMOS party.
The reconfiguration of the legislature will also be affected by the possible cancellation of 12 political parties that will not be represented in the next legislature. Among them:
- FCN- Nación
- Mi Familia
- MLP
- URNG-Maíz
- PAN
- Partido Humanista
- PIN
- Podemos
- Partido Popular Guatemalteco
- Partido Republicano
- Unión Republicana
- Prosperidad Ciudadana
The Electoral Law establishes that if 5% of the valid votes cast for the presidential elections are not obtained, or if at least one deputyship to Congress is not secured, the political parties will be canceled.
What can be expected in the coming days until the second round?
Jose Echeverría, from Movimiento Cívico Nacional, indicated that a lot of misinformation but also over-information can be expected. Due to the anticipation of what might happen, citizens may feel saturated with information available through media or social networks. He believes there is a significant opportunity to identify each candidate's proposals and make them accessible to Guatemalans.